What type of peace do Ukrainians want?

Everyone is preparing for the possibility of an enforced peace plan in Ukraine. Ukrainians are tired, but aren't willing to give up the millions of Ukrainians in occupied territory. Not even close.

Last week I was on a long drive through Western Ukraine. Two soldiers stood at the side of the road looking for a ride. I have a soft spot for Ukrainian soldiers. All these people had another job on February 23, 2022. They left those jobs to defend their freedom and their families.

Vitaly is 44 and his son Volodymyr is 22. Vitaly was round faced, pudgy and laughed a lot. Both were grateful for the ride and grateful to America for helping Ukraine. Volodymyr spoke slightly better English than I speak Ukrainian (which is to say that he can do more than order a cappuccino with lactose free milk) and Vitaly was remarkably funny on Google translate.

The father has lived a colorful life. He was an artist in a graphics company in Belgium for some time. The owner of the company called him the next Picasso, so that is now his call sign in the military. More romantic perhaps than “bricklayer” or “truck driver,” the other professions he mentioned.

We dropped Volodymyr off at a base and continued east, to a base where Vitaly was reporting to a military base for processing.

We stopped for gas. Vitaly was smoking outside the gas station and started coughing when he got in the car. In my rudimentary Ukrainian I said with a smile “Smoking, ni dobre,” or “smoking, no good.”

He pulled out Google translate and started typing. “I was part of the amphibious assault brigade fighting in Marinka. The Russians gassed me. The gas doesn’t come out of my lungs. The doctors say I have a year or two to live.”

I felt a bit like an idiot, but Vitaly didn’t seem to mind.

He told me he couldn’t go back to the front but was now joining the air defense in Lviv. Volodymyr is his oldest son. His middle son, age 21, is missing in action, presumed dead.

“I was prepared for this. His mother and grandparents were not,” says Google translate.

I asked him why he keeps fighting. His reply was simply “Freedom.”

I asked through Google translate if he is ready for the war to end. Google translate says back to me “Russia won’t bring it.” I ask if he wants a peace treaty Google replies “Russia won’t bring it.” I reword the phrase a couple of more times, with similar results, then I say, “How do you want the war to end?”

Vitaly starts typing. And keeps typing. And keeps typing. And types some more.

Google translate takes a deep breath and says, “With all the Russians off Ukrainian land, Russia paying reparations, Russian war criminals on trial in the Hague and all their nuclear weapons taken away.”  

Here is a man who has lost his own life in the war – he is simply waiting to die – most likely the life of his middle son and he still risks his uniformed older son in who was in my back seat. His family is emotionally devastated, yet he is spending his last days fighting to protect his hometown from missiles. He would keep fighting at the front if his health would let him.

Despite his losses he is ready to keep fighting until the Russians have paid for their crimes against Ukraine. This is not an isolated anecdote.

Ukrainians know Putin doesn’t keep his word on peace treaties. He is currently in violation of dozens of treaties, cease fires and other agreements with at least six countries, including the United States of America.

One soldier we met in Kherson told his story from the initial invasion in 2014. Putin had agreed to a ceasefire under the September 2014 Minsk Protocol, but Russian troops kept firing at his position, killing his men. He organized a counterattack and took out the Russians firing at him. Shortly afterward, Ukrainian authorities showed up and took him away. He barely avoided prison time. Putin violated the Minsk Protocol in January of 2015. He continues to fight.

Polling in Ukraine from late June made headlines, showing that 44% of Ukrainians think it is time for peace negotiations with Russia. Not widely reported was the Ukrainian reaction to Russia’s current plan for peace. Eighty-four percent of Ukrainians don’t want peace if it means giving up territories gained by the Russians in Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia.  

Pollster: Do you want peace?
Respondent: Yeah man, I am tired of all this.
Pollster: Are you willing to give up Ukrainian land to get it?
Respondent: Umm… a lot of good people have died. I am not THAT tired.

Americans tend to think this is a war about land. It is not. It is a war to keep the Russians from doing the most horrible things imaginable to people in parts of Ukraine they occupy.

These are the political realities that Zelensky is dealing with among his voters.

And it is not just about an elected leader trying to engineer a peace deal that his people will accept. Without peace on their terms, Ukrainians may just keep fighting.

We’ve been to the front dozens of times, and have good relationships with many military units. They are very entrepreneurial. They had to be to break through the legacy Soviet mindset in Ukraine’s military. Some formed as militias that were absorbed into the government. The most effective units have NATO standard training programs, access to quality weapons, military psychologists and generous compensation plans for relatives for soldiers who die in combat. They vie for good recruits. Some have been fighting since 2014. All have seen great loss.

It is not clear to me that all of them would stop fighting if Putin’s terms were met.

Some would say they would stop fighting if you did not give them weapons, but it will take a while to exhaust all Ukraine’s weapons. Ukrainians are innovative and in lieu of American weapons during the six month Congressional pause on Ukraine funding, developed and produced hundreds of thousands of deadly first person view (FPV) drones. Cheaper, deadlier drones than the ones America’s military industrial complex produces.

You can be assured that Putin will break any ceasefire. Given a bad deal, the Ukrainian military may not let one begin.

To paraphrase the 45th president, nobody knew ending the Ukraine war could be so complicated.