America is Not Ready for the Next War
America is Not Ready for the Next War
The future of warfare is happening in Ukraine, it is being funded in part by gas station reward points and America is getting virtually none of the benefit.
After the April aid bill passed, I got several inquiries from key members of Congress and staff as to whether the weapons promised in the bill had made it to Ukraine. The Biden Administration has a history of slow-walking weapons and folks on Capitol Hill were concerned that this was happening again.
Their concerns were justified a few days ago when Politico reported that the Administration “told the Ukrainians that the U.S. will eventually want to reset relations with Moscow” and lifting restrictions on the use of US weapons would hamper that effort. This is how you get a forever war.
In response to Congressional inquiries, in June and July the Ukraine Freedom Project team went to seven different spots near the front in three different Ukrainian oblasts (provinces). We spoke to dozens of military commanders, drone operators, high level military officials and every day Ukrainians hauling around an AK-47 on their shoulder. Additionally we spoke to American and European VCs, Ukrainian and American drone manufacturers, members of the Ukrainian parliament and other drone experts. We wrote the following paper and briefed it to several members of Congress and staff on Capitol Hill.
The Ukraine Freedom Project is a 501c3 and we run on tax deductible donations. If you like what we are doing and would like to see us do more to educate policymakers on Capitol Hill and around DC with factual, data-driven firsthand information about the war, please donate here.
We initially focused on 155mm shells. We asked numerous military commanders if, on a scale of 1-10, with 1 being they had no artillery shells ever and 10 being they had all the ammunition they needed all the time. The answers were consistently in the 3-6 range, which they said was a bit of an improvement.
We began to wonder how the Ukrainian armed forces survived without artillery shells for six months. Turns out that cheap Ukrainian-made First Person View (FPV) kamikaze drones have taken up much of the role of artillery at the front.
Four countries are leading the world in drone warfare. The United States is not one of them and only one of the leaders is our ally. The other three are pooling their technological advances. Despite many billions of dollars spent in Ukraine, so far it looks like there is no formal channel for DoD to benefit from the Ukrainian advances in drone warfare.
FPV Drones Compensate for Lack of Artillery Shells
For months, Ukraine’s armed forces have lacked 155mm artillery shells. Ukrainians reported receiving 12 Russian artillery rounds for each one they were able to send back.ii Even two months after the passage of the aid package, Kharkiv region commanders reported a severe lack of 155mm shells.
How did Ukraine survive this imbalance? Ukraine has innovated first person view (FPV) drones that are doing much of the work that artillery has done.
FPV drones are designed to be used once. They deliver a payload to kill infantry or destroy armor, including tanks. Drone pilots control them using goggles to see where the drone is going (hence “first person view”) and use a video game-type handset to guide the drone to its target.
FPV drones cannot fully replace artillery, but they are currently being used by Ukrainians to compensate for the lack of shells. A May 2024 report from Chasiv Yar said 90% of battlefield injuries were from FPV drones. A former Ukrainian government official reports that in the beginning of the war, Ukrainian armed forces used 70% artillery and 30% drones. That ratio has flipped.
Ukraine has requested 250,000 rounds a month from the EU, and reports firing about 110,000 per month.x According to Adm. Rob Bauer, the commanding officer of NATO, European shells cost $8,500 while the current price for American shells is about $3,000. The combined annual production of 155mm shells in the EU and the US is projected to be 3.2 million by the end of 2025, vs. a projected 5.5 million 152mm shells produced by the Russians in 2024. The disparity in artillery production capabilities between the West and Russia appears to be long term.
If NATO allies can’t produce enough artillery shells, then perhaps they need to compensate with cheaper and faster to produce FPV drones.
How Many Drones Does Ukraine Need?
Estimates of drone usage in Ukraine or the need for drones are varied.
In December 2023, Zelensky called for the production of a million drones in 2024. March 2024 media reports say that Ukraine at that time was building 150,000 drones per month (1.8 million per year) and is on track to build 2 million drones in 2024. For perspective, a year ago, Forbes reported Ukraine was using 10,000 drones per month. Zelensky has promised $2 billion for drones in 2024. Assuming all that will go to FPV drones (it won’t - some will go to long range drones, defensive electronic warfare, sea drones, etc.), at $500 per drone that would be 4 million drones.
(As an indication of either the media’s inability to understand the war in Ukraine, its interest in writing negative headlines about Ukraine or the fast changing nature of the drone war, the aforementioned Forbes headline was “Ukraine Drone Losses Are 10,000 Per Month.” Losing kamikaze drones is a good thing.)
Let’s assume 2 million FPV kamikaze drones. At $500 each, $500,000,000 buys six month’s supply. $500 million also buys just under 60,000 155mm artillery rounds from Europe, about a two-week supply assuming 110,000 artillery rounds fired per month. If sourced from the United States, $500m would supply a little more than six weeks’ worth of 155mm shells.
According to Ukrainian intelligence, Russia is tripling its production of FPV drones, from 180,000 in 2023 to 540,000 in 2024. Recent media reports indicate a more robust Russian production of 1.46 million FPV drones in 2024. Potentially, Ukraine can outpace Russia in FPV drone production. Certainly the disparity is not as bad as with artillery shells.
The USA is Far Behind in Drone Warfare
Ukraine is one of three countries currently leading the world in drone warfare, and the only US ally. The other two leaders are China and Russia. Iran is leading in long-range drones, with increasingly more powerful Shaheds that take out Ukrainian apartment buildings. Iran is using Ukraine as a testing ground for drones to be used against Israel as evidenced by the recent strike on Tel Aviv from Houthis in Yemen.
Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis use drones to attack Israel, evading Iron Dome. Russia coordinates meetings between Iran, Hamas and other terrorist organizations in Moscow. The drones and tactics used against Israel mimic those used by Russia against Ukraine. Presumably, they are passed from Russia to Islamic extremist groups.
Retired US military personnel come back from the front saying elite US units would not have lasted two days. American forces do not have the proper training, drone pilots or electronic warfare to detect/mitigate threats. As noted above, hospitals near the front report 90% battlefield injuries from FPV drones. One Ukrainian soldier said when they went to a NATO country for training, their trainers don’t say anything about drones. Another told me his trip to Spain taught him how to fight in Afghanistan, and he may have answered more questions about tactics than his trainers.
US drones are expensive and ineffective. Skydio was the subject of a Wall Street Journal article detailing the shortcomings of their drones in combat. An American former special operator who fought with Ukrainians spent hours with Teal tech support trying to get his Golden Eagle drones to fly. They never did. Ukrainian commanders in Kherson say that the kamikaze loitering munition Switchblade 300 is better suited to New Year’s Eve celebrations than killing Russians. They say it is less accurate than Ukrainian FPV drones, and the small payload can take out only a single Russian soldier. It costs north of $57,000.
US drones are also ineffective against Russian electronic warfare (EW) capabilities. Ukraine’s drone industry has an innovation cycle measured in days for countering Russian EW. American UAV producers don’t. Russia has a similar innovation cycle, and they seem to be sharing their findings with China and Iran.
Our adversaries are learning. It seems we are not.
In writing this paper, we have had conversations with Ukrainian drone manufacturers, American VC funds investing in drones, US drone manufacturers active in Ukraine, Ukrainian government officials and several other experts.
Despite a $100 billion plus American investment in Ukraine, none of our sources have identified a formal mechanism for the Pentagon or America’s defense companies to access the advances made by Ukraine’s drone industry. As one US drone manufacturer active in Ukraine said, “The US is capturing Ukraine’s drone technology piecemeal in chat groups on Signal.”
Not a lot of Americans who have worked in Congress have made it to the front and back to brief folks in DC on the reality of the war. The Ukraine Freedom Project is a 501c3 and we run on tax deductible donations. If you like what we are doing, please donate here.
There are a couple of exceptions. Eric Schmidt, former Google CEO, says he has made the switch from computer scientist and businessman to “licensed arms dealer” in his quest to bring cheap AI drones to Ukraine. I have firsthand knowledge of his activities in country for at least a year and have been impressed. Boeing has signed a memorandum of understanding with Ukraine’s aerospace giant Antonov. While Antonov has some impressive historical creds, including building the largest airplane in the world, it is not known locally for its cutting edge drone work.
Funding Ukraine’s Drone Industry
President Zelensky in December of last year called for the production of one million drones. Ukrainians are all in. Some are buying 3D printers to print parts in their homes. Others assemble drones on their kitchen table. Social Drone UA is a charity type organization that provides drone kits (not including the warhead or batteries) that ordinary civilians can assemble for about $280.
Zelensky has created a separate division of the armed forces for drone warfare and said he will devote $2 billion to funding Ukraine’s drone industry. Even so, Ukrainians are crowd funding drones both through established charities and by buying drones individually for their friends at the front. At least two Ukrainian gas station chains, WOG and AMIC, are buying drones for the Ukrainian military through a scheme similar to reward points.
Published reports say that Ukraine has 200 UAV startups. Our sources in the drone industry say Ukraine is home to some 750 defense tech startups, including UAVs.
NATO has a billion Euro fund to support defense tech, as does the European Investment Fund. America’s Defense Innovation Unit has a nearly billion-dollar budget.
None of these organizations will invest in companies inside Ukraine, thus missing out on the rapid innovation cycle and battlefield testing available in Ukraine. Meanwhile, Russia and Iran are using Ukraine as an environment to optimize their drones. While not documented, China, whose company DJI has cornered the market on military drones, is likely gaining technical and tactical know how as well.
One venture capitalist told us that, on average, $200k would fund a prototype for each of Ukraine’s 750 defense startups. FPV drones usually take $10k for a new prototype, while other weapons systems require more funding. This is $150 million to produce a working prototype for every defense tech company in Ukraine - a tiny fraction of the $143.2 billion the Pentagon has requested for R&D in 2025.
Congress needs to establish a mechanism by which Ukraine’s defense tech startups can be fully funded and the US government can capture the advances made by the Ukrainian defense tech.
Unfortunately, our conversations on Capitol Hill have led us to believe that this will never happen. Congress will never fund a Ukrainian company with US tax dollars. If a company leaves Ukraine and comes to the USA, they are losing the advantage of proximity to battleground testing and rapid innovation.
Key Takeaways
FPV drones can complement 155mm artillery shells. The US and EU have a shortfall of 155mm shells. FPV drones are currently less powerful, but can be produced more quickly and with lesser expense.
The United States is falling behind on a crucial drone warfare tactics and technology and missing out on a once in a generation R&D opportunity in Ukraine.
Russia, Iran and Islamic extremist groups are using Ukraine as a laboratory to develop tactics and technology against Israel.
Ukraine is operating on an innovation cycle measured in days with results tested in battlefield conditions against a US adversary.
There is no formal means for the US and its allies to capture these leaps in technology and tactics.
Neither is there a US, NATO nor EU defense innovation fund that will fund companies based in Ukraine.
The entire Ukrainian defense tech industry could create a prototype for an amount equal to around 1/10 of 1% of the DoD budget for R&D.
An additional $500m to ramp up production would give Ukraine an additional million drones to the two million they are on course to produce right now.
Not a lot of Americans who have worked in Congress have made it to the front and back to brief folks in DC on the reality of the war. The Ukraine Freedom Project has two. UPF is a 501c3 and we run on tax deductible donations. If you like what we are doing, please donate here.
About the Ukraine Freedom Project (UFP)
Named by Politico “The GOP’s Man in Kyiv,” UFP founder Steven Moore arrived in Ukraine on day 5 of the war. Moore delivered medical supplies to Kyiv when it was surrounded on three sides by Russians. UFP brought tons of food to Kharkiv when it was under siege.
Moore has spent weeks in frontline areas of Ukraine.
Previously, Moore was a chief of staff to a member of leadership in the House of Representatives.
UFP still works in humanitarian relief, but the group shifted to public policy and advocacy work when Moore was joined by another former House chief, Karl Ahlgren, and COO Anna Shvetsova.
A seasoned, 35-year veteran of government and politics, Karl Ahlgren has a client list that includes more than 100 past and current members of the Oklahoma Legislature.
Prior to resuming his consulting career, Ahlgren served as chief of staff from 2013 to 2017 for then U.S. Congressman and now U.S. Senator Markwayne Mullin. He also served as chief of staff to U.S. Congressman (and former U.S. Senator) Tom Coburn between 1994 and 2000, and as field director to former U.S. Senator Don Nickles for ten years prior.
Anna Shvetsova is the Chief Operating Officer (COO) of the Ukraine Freedom Project. Prior to the full-scale invasion, Anna held the position of COO at a digital marketing agency. She has also served as COO of a Ukrainian startup.
With a background in marketing and an MBA in data analytics and artificial intelligence, she brings extensive experience in managing business operations within Ukrainian startups and service companies.
Anna is highly motivated in her job, having been raised 30 miles from the Russian border, where her family still resides. She spearheads initiatives to provide humanitarian aid and non-lethal equipment to military personnel, many of whom are friends and colleagues from before the war.
Together, the group developed a campaign to highlight the systematic torture and oppression of Ukrainian Christians by Russians in occupied Ukraine, creating the environment for Speaker Mike Johnson to drive the April 2024 Ukraine aid bill through a Republican controlled House of Representatives.
You are correct that we need to catch up on drone warfare in a hurry. This is one of the ways Ukraine will be of great value as an ally to the United States and NATO - whatever form that arrangement will take.
Nice write up, Steve.
In particular highlighting the cost advantage of drone vs artillery. Also your flagging the gating issues for US and EU innovation funding to get to Ukraine based drone innovators. Still - putting on my Biz Dev / MBA hat for a second - it would seem there are already classic corporate development tactics around such, including M&A, licensing, JVs etc. We have the will. Let's find the way.
Also, I'd be extremely surprised/disappointed if US DOD of acquisition and evaluation of allied & enemy drone tech used in the Ukrainian battle space is as weak as you suggest (limited to user groups on Signal). Of course, it's not really in our interest to advertise our avenues for such, is it.
Heroiam slava - and I include you in that group.
JS.