Tough Week on Capitol Hill for Global Stability
Those shouting "NO" on Ukraine aid are compromising national security by putting their own political interests ahead of American interests. And they are raising a lot of money doing it.
I spent last week on Capitol Hill talking to Republican members of Congress, their staffs and anyone else interesting I encountered. I came away with two things: 1) C-SPAN coverage of the House of Representatives was likely highly rated in Taiwan last week and 2) global security is being held hostage by a few members of the House of Representatives who raise a lot of money by shouting “NO!” to everything. Ukraine aid is just what the shouting is about today.
First Taiwan. The Taiwanese think that if Ukraine wins, it is good for Taiwan. I was in the basement of the Longworth House Office Building when I found myself surrounded by about 50 Taiwanese journalists. I turned the tables on them and started asking questions. The journalists I talked to were very informed on Ukraine. I asked them if Ukraine loses, is it good for Taiwan or bad for Taiwan. Josephine Lee, a news anchor in Taipei, said “It is bad for Taiwan, because if Ukraine loses, Taiwan will think it will lose too.” Her view is reflective of Taiwan’s representative in Washington, Bi-khim Hsiao, who has said “Ukraine’s survival is Taiwan’s survival. Ukraine’s success is Taiwan’s success.”
Second, the “Ukraine No” caucus. Last week in the House of Representatives, a small group on the far right who raise massive amounts of money into their campaign accounts by opposing virtually everything are threatening to shut down the government over .04% of the Pentagon budget which would aid Ukraine’s military. My Taiwanese journalist friends, who see themselves next on the menu for a hungry dictator, recognize that showing global unanimity against Russia’s aggression is a key component to keeping the People’s Liberation Army on the Chinese mainland. They see that not standing up to Putin emboldens Xi Jinping.
Why are a small group of Republicans holding global stability hostage? The Washington axiom is “Follow the money.” Those shouting “NO” raise a lot of money doing so.
The top voices against aid to Ukraine are some of the most prolific fundraisers in Congress. They pick an issue, they demagogue against it, cast their fundraising nets nationwide and raise millions of dollars from tens of thousands of donors nationwide. Ukraine aid just happens to be the issue of the day.
One of the leading shouters against Ukraine aid had more than 65,000 individual donors in 2022, with more than 90% from out of state. For perspective, this member had only 72,000 people vote for them in their primary election. Another shouter with 35,000 donors found 80% of them from out of state. Most members of Congress have a few thousand donors.
In other words, rather than seeking financial support for their campaign from people who vote for them, these folks have recognized that they can put more money into their campaign accounts by appealing to obstructionist donors nationwide. The Founding Fathers set up the House of Representatives so its members would represent the interests of the voters in their district, not national donors.
To be crystal clear, the shouting is about more campaign money for these obstructionist members of Congress, not saving US taxpayer money. Currently the shouters are threatening to shut down the U.S. government over the provision in the defense appropriations bill for $300 million in aid to the Ukrainian military. The United States government spends just more than $11 million per minute, so the $300 million being fought over is about 27 minutes of federal spending. As it turns out, an unplanned closing of the government and its reopening it costs money. The last government shutdown in 2018-2019 lasted 35 days and cost about $143 million per day. If this shutdown lasts more than two days, it gets to be a bad deal for taxpayers very quickly.
I was a chief of staff to a member of House leadership during the government shutdown in 2013. It was a miserable experience to be dragged along on. The 2013 shutdown crew sought to defund Obamacare. After 16 days of nonsense, Obamacare stayed funded and the Congressional Republicans took a big hit in the polls. But the folks driving the 2013 shutdown became famous with the Republican base, driving them to seek higher office.
Like 2013, many of this small group on the far right trying to shut down the government have designs on higher office. Again, they are working in their own political interests, not in the interest of the US taxpayer or even the Republican party.
Also last week, twenty-nine members of Congress - six from the Senate and twenty-three from the House - sent a letter to the director of the White House Office of Management and Budget mostly ranting about the $300 million in aid to Ukraine. The good news is that the authors of this letter likely pitched it to every House Republican who would listen to them, and only 23 signed on. Far short of the 221 Republican members of the House.
The bad news, as I have written before, is that 103 Republican members of the House have voted against aid to Ukraine at least once out of the four times the legislation regarding Ukraine aid came up for a vote. If that number hits 111 - a majority of Republicans opposing aid to Ukraine - it gets difficult to even put a Ukraine aid bill up for a vote.
How does this end?
Hard to say. President Biden has requested an additional $24 billion in military aid to Ukraine.The far right is shutting down the government over 27 minutes of federal spending for Ukraine. It is difficult to imagine how a bill for the $24 billion - a day and a half of spending - would pass.
With the information we have now, it looks like neither the defense appropriations bill or $24 billion in additional aid to Ukraine will be passed until December. The likely scenario is that Congressional leaders will threaten to keep both the House and the Senate in session through Christmas, which will weaken the resolve of obstructionists. The Senate will put the $24 billion aid to Ukraine into legislation including disaster relief, border security or something else no Republican wants to vote against. The Senate will send this to the House, there will be a lot more drama like we are seeing today, and ultimately it will pass.
But anything could happen. GOP support for aid to Ukraine continues to trend down. Trump has been fairly quiet on Ukraine. If that changes, support for Ukraine could completely implode among Republicans. Nor does it help that Vivek Ramaswamy has dumbed down the GOP presidential with his Ukraine policy.
The left has also been quietly active against aid to Ukraine. Ben Cohen of Ben & Jerry’s fame has spent millions driving the Kremlin message of NATO provoking the Ukraine war. Some thirty progressive Democrat members of Congress sent a letter to President Biden last fall asking him to urge Ukraine to negotiate peace with Russia. While the group was convinced to withdraw the letter, presumably the sentiment remains. And the left is not immune to grandstanding and fundraising. The shutdown Republicans learned a lot from AOC.
Time is not the friend of Ukraine, Taiwan nor stability in the world.
If US support for Ukraine goes away, the worldwide coalition supporting Ukraine could unravel. If that happens, it sends a message to Xi Jinping that if China invades Taiwan, the world will forget about it in two years. Ending support to Ukraine does not keep America out of wars, it creates an environment for war on a much larger scale.