Republican Primary Voters Concerned About WWIII

In a poll of Republican primary voters, Ukraine Freedom Project found GOP voters concerned Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea creating chaos in the world. 81% think we are on the verge of WWIII.

M E M O R A N D U M

TO: STEVEN MOORE – UKRAINE FREEDOM PROJECT

FROM: GLEN BOLGER/JIM HOBART

RE: KEY FINDINGS OF A MESSAGING SURVEY IN CERTAIN GOP

CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS

DATE: NOVEMBER 10, 2023

Methodology

Public Opinion Strategies conducted a text-to-web survey of 679 Republican primary voters in 24 congressional districts. The survey was completed November 6-8, 2023 and has a credibility interval of +4.29% in 95 out of 100 cases.

Key Findings

1. These voters do not like Vladimir Putin or Russia. These voters are also paying a lot of attention to the war in Ukraine.

Putin has a 7% favorable/83% unfavorable image while Russia has a similar 7% favorable/84% unfavorable rating with these GOP primary voters. Fully 68% say they are following the news about “Russia’s war against Ukraine” closely.

These voters are unsure about who is winning the war, as 24% say Ukraine is, 27% say Russia is, and 49% are not sure who is winning.

2. There are a significant number of pro-Ukraine messages that resonate with these

GOP voters.

We tested 14 agree/disagree statements about Ukraine (eight of the messages included reference to Israel as well). The five messages listed below all hit 70% or higher levels of agreement. There were another four messages that ranged from 60-69% agreement.

If we are looking for places to save money, we should look at COVID spending. The $100 billion request for Israel and Ukraine is a quarter of the $400 billion of COVID spending that has been identified as fraudulent. (88% agree/12% disagree)

With the terrible wars in Ukraine and Israel, I worry that this could be the start of World War III. (81% agree/19% disagree)

Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea are creating chaos in Ukraine, Israel, and other places. The world needs America now more than ever to unite our allies and defend our friends who are under direct attack from our enemies. (76% agree/24% disagree)

Ukrainians are thankful for the weapons America has provided it. (72% agree/28% disagree)

The weakness President Biden showed in his withdrawal from Afghanistan emboldened Vladimir Putin to invade Ukraine. If America stops supporting Ukraine, then it will show weakness to Iran and make them more likely to attack Israel. (72% agree/28% disagree)

3. We also tested messages and asked survey respondents if that made them more likely or less likely to support Congress authorizing funding to support Ukraine in the war with Russia. “No difference” was provided as an option, which is why the numbers below don’t add to 100%.

Here are the eight strongest messages that received the highest responses as “more likely.”

More than 90,000 reports of rape and sexual abuse by Russian soldiers have been reported since February of 2022. Many of the victims are little boys and little girls. (66% more likely/13% less likely)

According to American Christian leaders, evangelical Christians are being persecuted and tortured by Russian soldiers in the areas of Ukraine that are occupied by Russia. Christians report torture with electrical shocks and being beaten with a baseball bat. Some bodies are too disfigured by torture to be easily identified. (63% more likely/12% less likely)

International organizations estimate, more than 100,000 Ukrainian children have been kidnapped by the Russians. (60% more likely/16% less likely)

If America stops military aid to Ukraine, millions of Ukrainians will be under the control of the Russians who are already persecuting and torturing Evangelical Christians, raping elderly women, and kidnapping Ukrainian children. (60% more likely/17% less likely)

Although Protestant Christians make up less than 4% of Ukraine's population, they make up one third of the reported incidents of persecution, torture, and abuse at the hands of Russian soldiers in occupied areas of Ukraine. (58% more likely/12% less likely)

According to eyewitnesses, Russian soldiers have told Ukrainian Christians "Evangelical believers like you should be completely destroyed…a simple shooting will be too easy for you. You need to be buried alive. (58% more likely/18% less likely)

Russians associate Evangelical Christians with America and single them out for abuse and torture. (57% more likely/11% less likely)

Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, America has spent approximately $42 billion on military aid to Ukraine, which is roughly 5% of the American military's own budget. Ukraine remains in control of approximately 83% of its territory and American intelligence believes the war has degraded Russia's military power and its ability to threaten NATO allies by as much as half. (56% more likely/20% less likely)

The Bottom Line

Republican primary voters have no love for Vladimir Putin or for Russia. They think the war is a toss-up.

We have a number of effective messages to use to potentially increase support for continuing to fund the war in Ukraine. There is no one or even two themes that stand out, meaning there are a number of different messaging strategies that could make a positive impact.