Part 2 - You Probably Don't Believe Ukraine is Winning
The Ukrainians have taken back 83% of their territory and degraded the Russian war fighting capability by half, yet polling shows most Americans don't think Ukraine is winning.
If you are an American and reading this, you are statistically unlikely to be aware of or believe the facts on the ground about the war in Ukraine.
The Ukrainians have taken back 87% of their territory, the Western/Ukrainian partnership of has degraded the Russians war fighting capability by half. The American contribution to this success has been around 3% of the annual budget of the US Department of Defense. The Ukrainian contribution has been the lives of tens of thousands of their very best people.
However, polling shows that the vast majority of Americans don’t believe Ukraine is winning, even at times when the Russians are in full retreat.
Kyiv Liberated
In early April of last year, the Ukrainians drove the Russians out of their capital city, Kyiv. They did this before any of the shipments of American or European weapons arrived. Most of the fighters doing this were ordinary Ukrainians – software engineers, lawyers, truck drivers, physical trainers and sound engineers, just to name of few of the folks I met in those early days. People who picked up a Soviet era AK-47 frequently older than them and ran toward the Russians.
Similar citizen militias drove the Russians out of Chernihiv and Sumy oblasts (provinces). Have a look at the maps below. The map on the left is the zenith of Russian occupation. The map on the right is about three weeks later. Note the lack of red. For perspective, the distance in the westernmost point of the Russian advance between March 26, the Zenith of the Russian occupation, April 15 when all the Russians were out of Kyiv and adjoining territories, is about the same as a drive between Atlanta and Orlando, or a little shorter than driving from Austin to El Paso.
The second most powerful military in the world was sent on an eight-hour drive home by a bunch of people just like you using crappy weapons whose desire for freedom was more important than their fear of death.
When that happened, only 24% of Americans thought Ukraine was winning.
Flagship Moskva Sunk
The Ukrainian navy is smaller than that of the almost land-locked desert country of Jordan. Yet shortly after the liberation of Kyiv, the Ukrainians sunk the Moskva, the flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet. And the Moskva’s successor flagship. And 17 more ships and boats, including a submarine and two landing craft in the last month or so. Much of their success has come from home made weapons - the Ukrainian Neptune missile or the Toloka TLK-150 sea drone, developed during the war.
Again, the American public opinion has taken little notice, hovering around 24% when the Moskva went down.
Kharkiv Offensive
Last fall, Ukraine took back massive swaths of land in Kharkiv, an area about twice the size of the Everglades or more than 5 times the size of Dallas County. The Kharkiv counteroffensive saw the liberation of about 150,000 Ukrainians suffering under Russian occupation… along with the identification of several mass graves filled with bound, tortured bodies including women and children.
The disorganized retreating Russians abandoned some 1400 tanks and armored vehicles, making a credible argument that Russia was the biggest donor of weapons to Ukraine at that point.
The maps below represent Ukrainian territory held by Russia (in red) on September 5 (left) and October 5, 2022 (right). Blue is newly liberated territory. The north/south reach of the blue part of the map on the right is about 110 miles, while the east/west is around 100 miles.
At that point one-third of Americans thought that Ukraine was winning.
Kherson Liberation
Kherson is someplace I have spent a significant amount of time since the place was liberated. It was occupied for about nine months. Everyone has a story of abuse, torture and general horror associated with the Russian occupation. Here is a video of the bravery of children in a small village in Kherson oblast (province).
I have heard eyewitness accounts of pregnant women being beaten by Russian soldiers, I have talked to people who were tortured by the Russians. Kherson is the city flooded after the Russians blew up Kakhovka dam. I was part of the relief effort where Ukrainian volunteers were being targeted by Russian artillery while pulling dogs and cats out of the floodwater.
The area is smaller, and the Ukrainians did not take as many armored vehicles in Kherson, but the level of horror inflicted on Kherson and still felt in the city is remarkable in itself. One resident, on liberation day, famously said “We don’t have any electricity, we don’t have any heat… but we don’t have any Russians!” Eighty-thousand people were liberated along with about 40% of Kherson oblast.
I described the Kharkiv territory above, so you can compare the size to the liberated territory in Kherson.
The liberation of Kherson convinced 35% of Americans that Ukraine was winning.
Why Don’t Americans Get the Full Picture?
What is the reason for the lack of recognition among Americans of Ukraine’s battlefield victories?
While only 21% of Americans in the latest Economist/YouGov poll from August of 2023 say Ukraine is winning, just 15% think Russia is winning. Seventy-four percent say neither or they just don’t know.
Most recently, the Ukrainian counteroffensive has not met the expectations created for it. Ukraine watchers expected another counteroffensive similar to the ones detailed above. Beach parties were being planned in Crimea. Both beachgoers and military analysts were disappointed.
But this is a relatively recent development, and the acquisition of real estate has not been the hallmark of this counteroffensive. Massive destruction of Russian artillery and the frequent air raid sirens in Moscow and Crimea have been the main flavor of the summer. The Ukrainians have not gotten the tanks, demining equipment and air support required for digging through dozens of kilometers of mines and dragon’s teeth, so they are attacking with the weapons they have in places they can be most effective.
Polling from Economist/YouGov
Media - Being There Makes a Difference
One reason for the lack of recognition of Ukrainian military victories is the nature of American media. There are two types of media covering Ukraine – those who are there or have been there, and those saying things about Ukraine without being there.
After seeing 24-hour, in-depth coverage for the first couple of months, most of what the American people now hear on the news is “Today something blew up in Ukraine.” I have had to good fortune to get to know many very brave journalists who come to Ukraine to give an accurate view of what is going on. But clicks are king, and burning apartment buildings make good video and tend to dominate the coverage. Make no mistake, coverage of the numerous Russian war crimes is important, but it does not give the full picture.
Then there are the people who talk about Ukraine without ever stepping into the country. The Kremlin has a remarkably effective propaganda operation that feeds US media, primarily conservative media. If you had told me this prior to me coming to Ukraine, I would have been highly skeptical. I have been at the front logged on my laptop watching conservative media report information completely at odds with what I am seeing with my own eyes. Surreal.
Then, my Russian-speaking Ukrainian friends show me the symbiotic relationship between Kremlin propagandists and conservative news personalities. Kremlin propagandists report lies about Ukraine on Russian TV, conservative news personalities pick it up on their shows in America and the Russian propagandists shows air a clip from US conservatives. It has been mind-blowing.
As one prominent example, Tucker Carlson is the TV news personality the Kremlin wants you to see. Sergei Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, took time out of a UN press conference to lament the firing of Tucker Carlson from Fox. In this video, Olga Skabeyeva, nicknamed the "Iron Doll of Putin TV,” gushes all over Carlson, calling him "our favorite."
All of us know the media has an agenda or a bias. When you are hearing news out of Ukraine, realize that what is happening on the ground does not make it through the media filter of the United States.