How did we get to Alaska?

What will happen in the meeting between Trump, Putin and… not sure who else... in America’s northernmost state?

Good information on the meeting is hard to get, as the strategy for this meeting is a close hold in the Oval Office and is being formulated in real time, nearly as I can tell.

In short, I don't think anything major will come of it.

The fundamental positions are unchanged - there is the immovable object of Putin's desire to take over Ukraine and the rest of Eastern Europe vs. the irresistible force of Trump's desire to bring the war to an end. Not necessarily to an end favorable to the Ukrainians, although that may happen, but an end for sure.

I don’t see a scenario where Putin does not continue to make maximalist demands. He is still shooting for all of the territory inside the Ukrainian provinces that he has only take part of. A non-starter.

The important thing coming out of this for Ukraine is that Putin continues to be seen as the obstacle to peace.

Even if something breathtaking happens on Friday, there will likely be a long period before it will be implemented and many opportunities for it to change.

There is a tendency to think of this meeting as you might other summit meetings - as the summation of events that will lead to change. However, most summit meetings involve months or years of work in advance. This meeting does not have that.

Secretary Rubio downplayed expectations, saying on Tuesday that this is a "feeling out" session and Trump needs to meet Putin face to face to get a sense of where to go next. For Trump, progress is a victory.

A friend of mine who advises Wall Street, one of DC’s "grand old men" who has been walking the halls of power longer than most White House staffers have been alive, is telling his clients that Trump is going to point out to Putin that China did not come to Iran's aid, and is unlikely to come to Putin's aid. His view is that this is a chance for Trump to squeeze Putin while sitting across the table from him.

It seems as though this meeting is taking place because Steve Witkoff, the special envoy to Russia, misunderstood Putin as saying that he was willing to pull out of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhia. A couple of days later, it became clear that Putin was saying that Ukraine should pull out of the embattled oblasts. Nothing new.

By that time, there was a lot of energy in the White House around a Putin meeting. My view is that Trump's team said "The hell with it..." and decided to hold the summit anyway. They feel they are coming off wins in "India-Pakistan, Thailand-Cambodia, the peace deal with Azerbaijan and Armenia" according to Rubio. Not to mention the military success in Iran.

Much of this is echoed from the Ukrainian side. A super sharp Ukrainian journalist friend said this:

We met with Zelenskyy yesterday and he said
1) it’s still unclear to him what exactly Putin told Witkoff
2) there are no demands or any concrete proposals from the US. Putin’s demands are not Trump’s demands.
3) he doesn’t know the US and Moscow positions in the upcoming talks but presumes Russia wants all of the Donbas and is going to stop the advances in exchange. That would be unacceptable.
4) the summit in Alaska is not a summation of anything but rather a stage in the process and he expects a three way or four way meeting after that.
5) any substantial agreement can be made only after unconditional ceasefire.

It is worth noting that someone brought Viktor Orban into the mix.

Trump: “I asked a question from a very very smart man, that some people like and some people do not like. Viktor Orbán, from Hungary. He is in the same area and knows the two countries very well. I said, ‘can Russia be beaten by Ukraine?’ He looked at me like ‘what a stupid question.’ He said Russia is a massive country, and they fight wars, that is what they do."

Of course Orban is going to say this. He said in 2023 that Ukraine was Afghanistan. I am not sure he has ever been to Afghanistan or Ukraine since the Russian invasion, but the characterization is inaccurate. Hungary is working with Russia on developing two nuclear plants. Orban has doubled down on buying Russian petroleum while most of the rest of Europe is decoupling from Russian energy. Orban is heavily invested in Russia and Russia’s victory.

Russia has been fighting in Ukraine for 11 years. They have taken about 18% of the country. It has cost them more than a million soldiers. When I arrived in Kyiv in the first days of the war, I could walk to the front. Now I have to drive about 10 hours to find a Russian.

Orban should remember: Putin is a Loser.

Bottom line: Don’t obsess about Friday. Likely just another round of Russian bluster. This is a long game.