Forbes Ukraine Interview with Steven Moore
Ukraine Needs the Brand of a Winner: How to Win the Battle for U.S. Support – Interview with Steven Moore, a Veteran Republican from Congress.
Last Friday, Marko Syrovoi from Forbes Magazine Ukraine interviewed me. Marko is only in his twenties, but displays an understanding of American politics beyond the level of most Americans. The interview was conducted in English, which was then translated to Ukrainian for publication, which we translated back to English. I edited it a bit for clarity, but the language may sound odd. My words are in italics.
With Donald Trump in office, Ukraine has lost its status as an ally in the eyes of the United States, and Russia is avoiding tougher sanctions.
How can Kyiv change this?
Donald Trump has been in office for five months. During this time, US policy toward the Russian-Ukrainian war has changed dramatically. Ukraine has not received any new aid and has repeatedly come under pressure from Washington. Russia, on the other hand, has not even received tougher sanctions. The United States now sees itself as a mediator, not an ally of Ukraine, Forbes Ukraine's source in diplomatic circles repeatedly said.
Why did this happen and is it possible to change it? Forbes Ukraine talked to Steven Moore about it. He is a veteran of Republican politics, having worked in Congress for seven years and being one of the most influential Republican staffers according to Politico.
From the fifth day of the full-scale war, he moved to Ukraine and founded the non-profit organization Ukraine Freedom Project. In addition to humanitarian and military assistance to Ukraine, Moore and his team are focused on another goal: he regularly travels to Washington to change the attitude toward Ukraine among his fellow Republicans and their constituents.
What matters to Trump
What is important to Trump and the Republicans who support him? How can we win their favor?
Trump is backed by the America First movement, which emphasizes that the priority of US policy should be America's interests. To win the support of this movement, it is important to show how helping Ukraine is in the best interests of the United States.
Some Ukrainian communicators fail because they constantly emphasize the words “my country” when they come to the Capitol. However, this does not sound convincing to America First supporters. It is necessary to emphasize the benefits to the United States of helping Ukraine.
There are many claims that Trump actually admires Russian President Vladimir Putin and other dictators. How do Republican congressmen and voters feel about it?
Democrats have been trying to politicize the situation by portraying Trump as a Russian agent for over 10 years, but they have never made it stick.
America First supporters claim that they are trying to separate Russia from China, although those who are familiar with Russia doubt that such a separation is possible. Nevertheless, Trump wants to try to do so because the situation is on the brink of global war: Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea are all acting as one.
The US military was created to fight a war on two fronts; its priorities are in Asia and the Middle East. Therefore, America First supporters believe that 450 million Europeans should take responsibility for their own defense.
What went wrong
At the beginning of Trump's second term, things didn't seem that bad for Ukraine. Trump threatened Russia with sanctions and lower oil prices. Was it an illusion of optimism or did something went wrong?
There are two main camps in the America First movement and in Trump's circle. The first believes that Putin respects only force and will not stop until Trump teaches him a lesson. The second one supports the idea that Putin should be treated more kindly, and then he will cooperate.
Politicians in the United States are very sensitive to public opinion, so Trump and J.D. Vance must take into account the mood of the electorate. Currently, about 40% of Republican voters are totally against providing Ukraine with weapons, and Vance is guided by this sentiment
The Ukraine Freedom Project tries to inform Americans about the situation in Ukraine. Our polls show that 84% of Republican primary voters support tougher sanctions against Russia, only 7% of Republican primary voters have a positive attitude toward Putin, and 70% consider him the main obstacle to peace.
This is a positive dynamic. Zelenskyy is currently not speaking a lot. This is the smart thing to do. Currently Putin is showing Republicans who he is and that Russia is the obstacle to peace. Zelensky is smart not to interrupt Putin while he is doing this.
Why did this not translate into a change in Trump's attitude? On the contrary, during these five months, Ukraine was under more pressure?
I don't know the strategy of the Zelenskyy team, but since the beginning of the full scale invasion, they seemed to have made a choice to associate themselves with the Democrats, which was arguably the right thing to do at the beginning of the war. Biden was in charge and the Democrats controlled Congress.
October 3, 2023 was a good day for the Russians. After passing a piece of pro-Ukraine legislation, pro-Ukraine House Speaker Kevin McCarthy lost his position due to the opposition of eight pro-Russia members of the Republican Party. Eight members of Congress can do very little by themselves, but these pro-Russia Republicans were supported by every Democrat. This was fun for the Democrats, but was terrible for Ukraine. This is one of several times the Democrats used Ukraine as a political tool. The Democrats plunged the House of Representatives into chaos over a Ukraine vote, and this was beneficial to Russia.
McCarthy was replaced by another Republican, Mike Johnson...
Johnson had voted against Ukraine nine out of nine possible times as a rank and file member of Congress. Johnson is a devout Baptist. We worked for six months to educate him and other key Republicans on the horrors Russia is inflicting on Ukraine’s Christians, particularly evangelical Christians. We were not alone. Many pro-Ukraine organizations and Ukrainian Christians worked on this.
Johnson heard the stories of Protestants in Ukraine. He met with a Baptist from Odesa who lost his family in a Russian drone strike on his apartment building. The briefings Johnson received from the intelligence community gave him the intellectual information as to why it was important to support Ukraine. Our work provided him the spiritual and emotional connection with Ukraine that moved him to risk his job as the third most powerful American to get the aid bill passed.
Johnson doubled down on his support for Ukraine in a Reagan-like speech at the Hudson Institute, where he mentioned Ukraine’s Christians. Republicans were active in support of Ukraine. In September, six senior Republican members of Congress wrote a letter to President Biden asking him to let Ukraine use US weapons inside Russia - something almost every Democrat was unwilling to do.
So what went wrong?
Zelenskyy stumbled by making a trip to Pennsylvania in the fall of 2024, on the eve of the US elections. He was seen in a key swing state campaigning with Democrats. Ukrainians may not understand why this is a problem. American politics are very toxic. Johnson and the Republicans had gone to great lengths to help Zelensky and Ukraine, then saw President Zelensky helping their political enemy. Their feelings were similar to how a Ukrainian might feel when Trump says something good about Putin.
Johnson demanded the dismissal of Ukraine's ambassador to the United States, Oksana Markarova, after the scandal.
This is typical of American politics: if something goes wrong - you need to find someone to fire. In the spring of 2024, Johnson put his career on the line to pass the Ukraine aid bill, even though all his friends voted against it. He firmly believed it was the right thing to do. When Zelenskyy visited Pennsylvania among Democrats, Republicans began to criticize Johnson, accusing him of supporting someone who supported the Democratic campaign. Johnson needed something to show these people. Someone had to sacrifice themselves.
Was it a mistake not to change the ambassador?
I don't know what options Zelensky had. I'm just trying to explain how it looked from the American point of view.
Is the Pennsylvania incident still causing toxicity in relations with the Republicans?
There have been several decisions that have shown that the pro-Ukraine community leaning toward the left, and Republicans have noticed. Zelensky and Markarova may not have known the consequences of the trip to Pennsylvania, but the Democrats knew exactly what they were doing. Pennsylvania has hundreds of thousands of voters of Eastern European descent. They were using Zelensky to mobilize them. They did not care that it would destroy Zelensky’s relationship with Republicans.
However, there is a way to fix this.
Zelensky is taking the right steps now. It's very important that he gave interviews to Ben Shapiro, who reaches 12% of Republican voters, and Newsmax, which has 24%. By comparison, CNN reaches only 1%. CNN is not an effective channel to reach Republicans. Neither is much of the other “mainstream” media.
Unfortunately, during the three years of war, the Ukrainian voice was rarely heard on Republican channels. Russia has spent tens of millions on propaganda and fake news aimed directly at Zelenskyy. It has been largely unanswered.
Is the head of the OP Andriy Yermak toxic among Republicans, as Politico reports?
I have never met him.
But you have met people in the United States who have met him?
Yes. But I cannot give Zelenskyy advice on how to organize his team.
The dispute in the Oval Office.
What was the reason for Zelenskyy and Trump's argument in the Oval Office? There is an assumption that it was a planned trap for the President of Ukraine.
Vance is receiving political dividends from his anti-Ukrainian stance. Someone should have warned Zelensky that this could happen. I don't know who gives him advice, but in recent years it was mostly people with left-wing views, and that advice no longer works.
In the end, everything ended well. The mineral agreement was signed, and our polls show that it is popular among Republicans because it demonstrates the US interest in Ukraine.
Why did the mineral deal not make Trump and the Republicans more favorable towards Ukraine? Can it still lead to security guarantees from the United States?
This agreement is an important argument, but there is a communication problem. Ukraine needs to address the audience more often through the prism of America First principles. The agreement has been signed, but it is not covered much.
Besides, Americans love winners. After Ukraine's successful Web operation in Russia, Ukrainians received support from ordinary Americans. The more Ukraine emphasizes its victories, the more attention it will attract.
However, this operation was poorly covered by conservative media. Ukrainians should appear more often on channels watched by Republicans: 62% get their information from Fox News, 28% from Joe Rogan, and 24% from Tucker Carlson.
Zelensky cannot cover everything himself. He should empower other representatives who can speak on behalf of Ukraine. For example, a Ukrainian soldier with real war stories on Rogan's podcast would look very convincing.
If we look at this through the prism of the America First concept, what else can Ukraine offer to become an asset for Trump rather than a source of problems? For example, Lindsey Graham, the author of the idea of a minerals agreement, suggests establishing a drone business.
That is a good idea. Ukraine effectively produces $500 drones with a fast innovation cycle and feedback from the battlefield, while the US produces expensive and less effective drones like the Switchblade 300. If at least 10% of the $250 billion in Pentagon R&D went to the Ukrainian defense industry, it would bring results. Ukraine has a lot to offer.
However, there is also criticism of this approach. The main argument is that Ukraine will not outbid Russia. In particular, the Dmitriev-Witkoff proposal on gas. Perhaps Ukraine should not go the transactional route?
This raises more questions than answers. Many people are unhappy with Trump because of what he says, but you shouldn't dwell on every statement he makes, otherwise you will develop a dependency on anti-anxiety medication and whiskey. Ukraine should be careful with people who say the nice things. Biden promised a lot, but only at the end of his term did he authorize strikes against Russia. This means he did not think it was bad policy, but that he lacked the courage face any blowback from the action. Similarly, Macron talks tough, but France spent more money on Russian liquid natural gas last year than on helping Ukraine’s military.
Belgium is not fulfilling its NATO commitment of 2% defense spending, and last year it sent Russia enough money for liquid natural gas to pay for almost all the Shaheds flying at Kyiv this year. All the while, more than $200 billion of Russian assets are stored in Belgium.
Why aren't Ukrainians protesting against countries like Belgium? Our polls show that if Ukraine, along with Denmark, the UK, and the Baltic countries, were to criticize Europeans for their lack of support, it would resonate with Republican voters.
Steps towards a common goal
Let's get back to the actions of the United States. Russia seems to have managed to defend itself against potential pressure from Trump and the Republicans who support him. How did it do it?
The Trump administration has only been in office for five months, so it's hard to say whether Russia or Ukraine has succeeded in its efforts. I often hear from Ukrainians: “No matter what we do - nothing works with Trump.” Yet you have not been working hard enough to change public opinion among the American right while Russia has been spending tens of millions on this cause. Giving up the fight for Republican support is not the best option. Ukraine will always need bipartisan support.
Is your key advice to influence the opinion of right-wing voters?
Exactly. Our latest polls show that 39% of Republican voters support helping Ukraine. When given accurate information about the war, this number rises to 60%. I've worked in Republican campaigns for many years and I see how a well-organized campaign can significantly increase support for Ukraine.
With the right formulation of messages, you need to communicate them through effective channels. Ukraine and pro-Ukrainian activists in the US are not doing this on a large scale yet. Many of them seem to feel that if they just call Trump enough names, he will give Ukraine weapons.
What kind of messages should we send them?
It is necessary to rethink the strategy and brand of Ukraine as a winner. Trump and Americans love winners. Ukraine's heroes need to communicate that Ukraine is winning. The Russians are grabbing tiny pieces of land at a great price. Think about how many people Russia kills to seize one square kilometer.
Forbes counted - more than 200.
Yes. However, when the Russians advance 300 meters and capture a gas station, it attracts the attention of the mainstream media. They don't always add context: how many soldiers it “cost” to capture it, how much money Russia pays these soldiers, how sustainable this strategy is. No one in the United States knows this, when such indicators be included in the communication cycle among conservatives
However, some Republicans already understand a lot about Russia. Lindsey Graham said in Kyiv that Russia is playing games with Trump. When will Trump realize this and take action?
A great educational process is underway.
We do not have much time. Ukrainians are dying every day.
I understand. I've been to the front about 50 times and have friends there, so I know how important it is to continue to educate, even if it takes longer than we would like. Trump had the belief that Putin was someone he could work with, but over time he will realize that this is not the case. We need to continue to provide Republicans with quality information.
For example, we made a movie called A Faith Under Siege about the persecution of Ukrainian Christians by Russia. It was shown six times on the Christian Broadcasting Network, which is watched by 8% of Republicans, and on Newsmax, which has 24%. Such content reaches a conservative audience and helps change perceptions of the situation in Ukraine. It is not necessary to harshly criticize Republicans, as this only politicizes the issue and alienates Ukraine from support.
The Reality of Prospects under Trump
How do you assess the prospects of the Graham-Blumenthal sanctions bill and the potential sale of American weapons to Ukraine?
More than 80 senators support the bill, which is impressive. You can’t get 80 Senators to agree on what time it is, so this shows strong support. Our polls show that 84% of Republican voters support the bill.
Soon, public opinion in the US and the reality that Putin does not respect Trump will converge. Then you will see changes. Ukrainians should remember that the US can only fight a war on two fronts. If there is a conflict on three fronts, even with the desire to help Ukraine, the US will also have to respond to the situation in Asia and the Middle East.
A smart strategic move is not to focus on what Trump is doing or could do. Instead, Ukraine should pay attention to what Europe, Belgium, France, or Italy are not doing. Europe needs to step up if it does not want to “learn Russian.”